But the legend of the February 2nd forecast also persisted, as captured in this old English saying:
Winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Winter will not come again.
Historical Track Record of Punxsutawney Phil 1887–2012
Courtesy of Punxsutawney Groundhog Club
|Saw Shadow||No Shadow||No Record|
Punxsutawney Phil Vs. the U.S. National Temperature 1988–2012The table below gives a snapshot by year since 1988 whether Phil saw his shadow or not along with the corresponding monthly national average temperature departures for both February and March. The table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis. Since 1993, the U.S. national temperature has been above normal 11 times in February, 12 times in March, below normal 6 times in February, 3 times in March, and near normal 3 times in February and 5 times in March.
|Year||Shadow||February Temperature Departure||March Temperature Departure|
|2011||No||Slightly Below||Slightly Above|
|2008||Yes||Slightly Above||Slightly Below|
|2001||Yes||Slightly Above||Tied Average|